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	93L: Will this be what we have been waiting for? Or long story short ALBERTO?!?!

Posted by: WxGeekVA, 4:39 PM GMT on May 19, 2012

Good afternoon, everyone! Below I have an update on 93L, complete with plenty of maps, charts, and data. I also have my forecast for the system, so read on!

Invest 93L at 12:15 PM EDT (Navy Page for 93L)

93L formed as a result of a lower level trough which broke off from an upper level system, and has since worked its way down to the surface. The low pressure has since developed convection over the center and to the north and west of the circulation.

Projected path of 93L created by WxGeekVA using the Wunderground model page for 93L and the current RGB still

Conditions are fairly favorable for development, as shear is a slightly favorable 20kts from the SE, and SSTs are warm enough to support a tropical system.

Sea Surface Temperature map (Wunderground)

93L sits directly over the Gulf Stream, which is warmer than average for this time of year. Temps are about 75-80 degrees, which is needed for sustained tropical development.

Shear Analysis (CIMSS)

Shear is between 15-20kts according to the CIMSS analysis maps, and is still falling. Shear levels of 20kts or less are generally needed for tropical systems to intensify.

The SHIPS guidance brings 93L to 54kts in 72 hours, which is 60-65 MPH after conversion.

RGB Loop GIF (tropicaltidbits.com)
93L can be seen in the left/center of the loop just offshore.

Overall, conditions are favorable for development of this system, and I do think we will see Alberto at or before 11PM tonight. If Alberto is named, it should be able to attain at least moderate tropical storm status, as it meanders offshore and then slowly turns northeast. It could provide rain to the Carolina coasts and parts of the Mid-Atlantic if the system is close enough to shore. I do not believe that it will become a hurricane, and landfall is not extremely likely.

I may have another update later if indeed the NHC upgrades it.

WxGeekVA

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1. Ameister12 4:45 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Good job, WxGeekVA! Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3481

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