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	Tropical Update 2012: TS Ernesto Enters Caribbean, Another TD Imminent?

Posted by: hurricaneben, 11:52 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

A lot has happened in the past 24 hours. Tropical Storm Ernesto has moved into the Caribbean Sea and is forecast to strengthen but that's not the only game in town. A tropical wave, which emerged off Africa in the past couple of days, has swiftly developed and is now rather close to TD status. Is it a threat to land? We'll get to that but first let's get a grip on Tropical Storm Ernesto and its future.

TS Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto struck the Windward Islands earlier today with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds but no major damage. It hasn't strengthened much since last update, actually it still only has winds of 50 MPH, but strengthening is forecast and could start to pick up as soon as tomorrow morning. It could become a hurricane by Sunday as it passes just to the south of Jamaica so residents there still need to keep an eye on it in case trends shift further north but at this time Jamaica will likely avoid a direct hit. But the Yucatan may be in for a hit sometime next week as a category one/two hurricane and then enter...the Gulf Of Mexico? Yeah...it's still several days out but Ernesto is definitely one to watch.

Invest 90L
Invest 90L could become a TD as early as tonight but since dry air may come into play by Sunday, I don't see this getting very strong...probably will make it to TS Status (Florence) but not much more than that. As far as models go, this is no immediate threat to land so of course that makes Ernesto the biggest story in the next several days. It has a 70% chance of TC formation according to the NHC.

Invest 91L
Invest 91L...isn't much of an area of interest. It is forecast to bring a decent amount of heavy rainfall to parts of the Florida Peninsula but that's about it. Models do take it into the Gulf Of Mexico and that's where development is a strong possibility, so the GOM may be an active topic next week. We could possibly see a TD form, not very likely, but possible. The NHC gives this a 20% chance of TC formation by Sunday evening.

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