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Last Updated: 9:31 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
— Last Comment: 4:31 PM GMT on August 23, 2012
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Good afternoon everyone!
Ernesto: Ernesto tracked along the coast of Mexico and is now headed inland. Some models including CMC and the GFS show the remnants of Ernesto developing once again in the EPAC (Eastern Pacific Ocean). If this idea comes to fruition, “Ernesto” would not be a threat to land for the time being and would most likely go out to sea.  850 mb vorticity showing a well defined LLC over TD07.  Wind shear is currently forecasted to be light to moderate for the next couple of days. We can also see good anticyclonic ridging already developing over TD07. TD07: Throughout the day TD07 has been one of the main stories to talk about. We had originally thought that we had TD07 early this morning due to the renumbering of the invest on ATCF. This happened to be false information and we continued to have 92L throughout the remainder of the day. Currently TD07 has a vigorous LLC (on satellite and with 850 mb vorticity). Convection as also been trying to fire at the center of this circulation all day despite the dry air infiltration. The NHC currently has the storm clocking winds of 30kts moving west at 17kts, and a MCP of 1010 mb. The forecast for TD07 is similar to Ernesto for the time being. After TD07 hits the Eastern Caribbean it should start to gain some latitude due to a weakness in the upper level ridging. For the short term forecast TD07 will continue on a due west course.  TD07 GOM: Some of the models that hinted at the idea of a storm forming close to home have since dropped that idea, except for NOGAPS. In the long run NOGAPS shows a system developing somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico sometime early next week. We should still keep an eye out on the GOM because the environment could be conducive for some development.  The latest wave coming off of the coast of Africa. Atlantic Outlook: The wave over Africa is starting to make its appearance into the EATL. Currently, NHC has this at a 20% chance for development in the next 48 hours. There has been a lot of hype around this system, but its important to remember that these tropical waves behave completely differently over land then they do over the ocean. With that in mind this system may not develop as fast as people think. Most models are still on board with developing this system eventually, but just not immediately. It will also have a little bit of dry air to contend with just in front of it which will also slow down the development process.  A little bit of dry air could inhibit quick development for the African wave. Thanks everyone for reading! Also, these forecasts do not reflect the OFFICIAL forecasts from the NHC; please consult the NHC for official public forecast on all active Tropical Cyclones. ~Matt~
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