nigel20's WunderBlog 

Hello Nigel,

Thank you for stopping by my blog today. I think I have seen you on Dr Master's blog from time to time.. sometimes I lurk there but don't often post...until we have a "threat".

I see you have a tropical weather theme blog. Nice job.

Hope to see you around more often.

Enjoy your day.

Gams

Hi, Nigel. Saw you stopped by my Easter blog. Yes, you were a little bit late. LOL Nice blog.

Here is a little link for you. You may already have it, but it does give some good information, especially during the hurricane season. It is Crown Weather:

Link

Hi, Nigel

Thanks for the Caribbean weather blog. I'll be sure to bookmark it!

All I can say is that we're REALLY hoping this windy weather leaves us soon. It's not doing the fishing business any favours!

Take care!

Don't know if you are aware of the TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS, covers the Carribean well.


Also, Caribbean Precipitation Forecasts

Good evening Nigel. Can you believe that I haven't visited this great blog? Yes,you have a great blog for us who live in the Caribbean. I am sure that as time goes by, you will add more things. I have a few web cams from different parts of the Caribbean that you can add that I will bring.

Good morning on this Saturday the 21rst. Here is another important web cam that you can add to the first post and this is of the Soufriere Volcano in the island of Monteserrat.

On Saturday,we had one flood advisory issued. The moisture is slowly increasing in PR as the winds are from the SE also bringing higher temperatures than normal.

Here is a cam from Grand Cayman island.

The night updated discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST SUN APR 22 2012

.UPDATE...SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. PASSING SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...USVI AND THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

The 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane Season is getting closer. Here is a good countdown of days,minutes and seconds.

Link

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON APR 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST...CROSSING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY AS
STRONG TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AFTER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE HAS ENTERED NEW JERSEY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND KEEP MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA WILL JOIN WITH THE HIGH
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO KEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY GOOD MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE AREA AS EVEN
LAND BREEZES ON THE SOUTH COAST GAVE WAY TO INCOMING SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE SEEN MOST OF THE NIGHT BEGINNING
ON THE EAST COAST AND SPREADING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS IS A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH AND EAST EXTREMITIES OF PUERTO RICO AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IS IN
STORE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COASTS AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
AROUND...AND SOMETIMES OVER...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH
MOISTURE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FROM THE TWO PLUS INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 23/00Z SOUNDING...HOWEVER THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT ALSO BEGINNING AROUND
23/00Z AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY LEVELS HIGH. ALSO BUMPED UP MOS TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST ANOTHER 2 DEGREES. WARM AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND MOS WAS SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL ON THE
NORTH COAST YESTERDAY. MANY AREAS ON THE NORTH COAST WILL SEE
LOWER 90S BY MIDDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOWED TODAY AS HAVING THE
HIGHEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES OF ANYTIME THIS WEEK. WITH
THIS GOOD MOISTURE WE LOOK FOR AFTERNOON URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING TO RECUR ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS FROM THE HEATING AND
BETTER MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH THE
BEST MOISTURE STILL STAYS OVER HISPANIOLA...EXPECT TO SEE
CONTINUED GOOD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...WITH WIND FLOW TURNING TO THE EAST...
THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND DIMINISH OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE
WILL RECOVER LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING TJPS EARLY. FOR THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO DEVELOPING
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. VCTS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...TJMZ...AND
TJPS. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO...THEREFORE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJBQ. EXPECT PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...PARTICULARLY AT TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY 3-5 KNOTS AND 10 TO
17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHER WINDS MAY BE SEEN LATER
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 76 87 75 / 50 30 50 30
STT 84 77 85 77 / 40 50 50 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST MON APR 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL HOLD THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN WEAKEN. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ERN DOM REP AND THE MONA
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SERN CANADA. 12Z GFS40 VERIFIED QUITE
WELL TODAY SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS
THE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 90S AS WAS
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TO
NEAR 60W BY 00Z WED WITH GFS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE TOMORROW AND BETTER UPWARD MOTION TUE AND WED.
ANTICIPATE SCT SHOWERS TO RETURN TO NW PR TUE AND WED. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT COOLING AT 950 AND 850 MB WITH SHOULD RESULT IN A
DEG OR TWO OF COOLING AT THE SFC. CONDITIONS LOOK VERY ACTIVE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE MONA PASSAGE ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

UPPER TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM LIFTS OUT OVER TOP OF MID ATLC RIDGE
THU WITH UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THU WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING AND TRADES RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS STAY UP
OVR THE WEEKEND WITH A SIG DRYING TREND FCST FRI-MON.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FEET THROUGH FRI BUT INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
TO 4-6 FT AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 85 / 0 50 0 20
STT 79 86 79 79 / 20 20 20 20

Today,it has been very warm here.

.CLIMATE...SO FAR HIGH AT SJU AIRPORT HAS BEEN 91F AND RECORD IS
92F. SO THERE STILL A CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD
TODAY. RECORD FOR TOMORROW IS 95F AND WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO BREAK
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT 950 AND 850 MBS.

Plenty of rain for that area in the next couple of days.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
225 PM EDT MON APR 23 2012

NOTE: THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION TO AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND DURING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES REMAINING THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST MON APR 23 2012

.UPDATE...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS EVENING DEPICTED ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS. WITH A SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN COMPARISON
WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Good morning. More warm temperatures and little rain are expected today in PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST TUE APR 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...TRADE WINDS
RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT THE 24/00Z SOUNDING
WAS 1.86 INCHES WHILE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 24/07Z INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAD GONE DOWN TO
1.65 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG
LESS CAPE THAN YESTERDAY AND AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 800MB. COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WILL OBSERVE NUMEROUS SHOWERS...HOWEVER...THAT HAS NOT BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...WE WERE CONSERVATIVE
WITH THE POPS GIVEN THE FACT THAT NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE USVI.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES NEXT 24 HRS WITH EXCEPTIONS OF BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND
TKPK. HOWEVER...AFT 24/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 24/22Z. LLVL WINDS 12 KT OR LESS FROM SSE AT OR
BELOW 7 KFT. STILL SEEING UP TO 45 KT BTWN 35-45 KFT. A SHEAR LINE
WITH SCT CONVECTION WILL BE ENCOUNTERED ABOUT 150-200 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAN JUAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 75 / 20 10 20 10
STT 85 77 85 76 / 10 20 20 10

The maximun temperature in San Juan was 91F this afternoon and Wednesday will be another warm day,before wind direction changes from the east.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST TUE APR 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH LONG
WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE SOME VENTILATION FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY
ERODES THE UPPER RIDGE NOW OVERHEAD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS CUBA THEN INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE LATTER MENTIONED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD OVER THEN NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE WEAKENING...AS STRONG
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS WEAK SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY BY THURSDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FAIRLY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
MASS...WITH SHALLOW PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW. PWAT VALUES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN RANGED BETWEEN 1.70 TO 1.90
INCHES. THEREFORE WITH THIS WEAKER WIND FLOW TODAY... EXPECT MORE
LOCAL TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TODAY IN SOME AREAS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
INTENSE HEATING AND PROXIMITY OF A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MAY
LEAD TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER... EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. MOST OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND MAINLY LOCALLY AND AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE A CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW AS THE TRADE WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOCAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AND AROUND TJBQ. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 74 85 / 10 20 10 10
STT 77 85 76 86 / 20 20 10 10

From HPC:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
217 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

NOTE: THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION TO AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND DURING TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH A
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY.


TO THE NORTHEAST...A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS TWO
SURFACE FRONTS. ONE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS-EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-NORTH OF JAMAICA. THE OTHER EXTENDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS-NORTHERN CUBA-NORTHERN YUCATAN WHILE PROGRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST...EXPECT SHALLOW
POST-FRONTAL MARINE CONVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO PRODUCE
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...WHERE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE. FURTHER
SOUTH OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA...FAIR WEATHER IS TO
CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY-LAYER REMAINS DRY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ALONG ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT MOISTURE RETURN BY 72-84
HRS TO PRODUCE LARGER ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST.
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. A DRY PATTERN IS TO
EXTEND ALSO INTO THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHERE DRY AIR ADVECTION IS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE CYCLE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

TO THE EAST OVER JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CYCLE. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS TO CONCENTRATE NEAR PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND
SHEAR LINE. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN
HISPANIOLA...IT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS SLOWLY LEAVING REGION OF
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH 48 HRS. A
SECONDARY SHEAR-LINE IS TO DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO BY 48 HRS
PROVIDING TRANSIENT SYNOPTIC FORCING AT LOW-LEVELS...TO THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRENGHTENING OF THE EASTERLIES IS TO PUSH LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WESTWARD AFTER 60 HRS PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE CONCERN OVER
HISPANIOLA REMAINS HIGH. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS TO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH PWAT IN EXCESS OF 50MM.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS REACH
THE NORTHERN COAST. THE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIURNAL
CYCLE OF BREEZES AND OROGRAPHY. MID/UPPER DYNAMICS ARE ALSO TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE UNDER DIVERGENT PATTERN IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMA. OVER SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...EXPECT
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 25-50MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. NOTE THAT HIGH RESOLUTION
VERSIONS OF THE WRF MODEL ARE SHOWING LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN EXCESS
OF 200MM/DAY. BY 36-60 HRS...AMOUNTS ARE TO DECREASE TO
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND. OVER THE NORTHERN TIER EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS. BY 60-84 HRS...EXPECT FURTHER
DECREASE WITH 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION AND SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE RISK
FOR LOCAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS HIGH. OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS. THESE ARE TO INCREASE TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS AS SHEAR LINE
PROGRESSES WESTWARD AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING EASTERLIES. OVER
JAMAICA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH 36
HRS...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY BY
60-84 HRS.

TO THE EAST...OVER PUERTO RICO...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
ESTABLISHING AS MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA RELOCATES
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE CYCLE. BOUNDARY-LAYER
WINDS ARE TO REMAIN WEAK WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLIES TO EASTERLIES. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT DIURNAL
BREEZES TO DOMINATE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERNS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THE
FOLLOWING DAYS...THEY ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A TRANSIENT EROSION BY
42-60 HRS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRANSIENT
SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE ISLAND. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT A SURGE IN
CONVECTION TO AFFECT MOSTLY AREAS OVER AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTRAL CORDILLERA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
AND SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...AS A DRIER PATTERN
ESTABLISHES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. EAST OVER THE MINOR
ANTILLES...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DURING THE CYCLE WITH
WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION.

OVER EASTERN PANAMA/WESTERN COLOMBIA...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CYCLE AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION AND TROUGH/LOW SOUTH OF PANAMA REMAIN WELL DEFINED.
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CHOCO/WESTERN ANDES
IS TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. AMOUNTS ARE TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN ANDES...EXPECT ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE
WHILE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENHANCES CONVERGENCE.
FURTHERMORE...EXPECT A SURGE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES TO INTENSIFY
THE WESTWARD MEANDERING TROUGH AND ESTABLISH A SURFACE LOW WEST OF
CARTAGENA BY 60-84 HRS. AS THE SURFACE LOW ESTABLISHES...EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO PEAK DURING FRIDAY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EVEN MORE. INITIALLY...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.
OVER THE COLOMBIAN LLANOS...EXPECT MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO
INCREASE LATER IN THE CYCLE TO 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
VENEZUELA...EXPECT DRIER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR MASS IS
ADVECTED FROM THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERSISTS. THIS IS
TO FAVOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING
THE CYCLE. OVER THE GUIANAS...HOWEVER...A WETTER PATTERN IS
ESTABLISHING AS WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVES IN. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO PEAK BY 36-60 HRS WHEN ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ARE EXPECTED.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
SOLORZANO...SMN (HONDURAS)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)