nigel20's WunderBlog

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	Caribbean Weather Outlook

Posted by: nigel20, 3:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2012

Caribbean Weather Outlook

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

Wind Shear

Surface Winds

Wave Height

Global SST Anomaly

Global SST's

48hrs Tropical Cyclone Probability

Water Vapor

Infrared Satellite

Visible Satellite

Satellite Imagery-Puerto Rico

Surface Analysis

Tropical Atlantic

Cayman Islands Radar

NE Dominican Republic

Anegada Cam

South Coast of St John Cam

Barbados Cam

Grenada Cam

Westbay Cayman port

Cancun

Rincon,Puerto Rico

St Maarten

St Barts

Soufriere Volcano in the island of Monteserrat

Grand Palladium Jamaica Resort & Spa

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301. nigel20 5:45 PM GMT on May 26, 2012
Good Afternoon all Barbados Weather Lesser Antilles Forecast Validity: 1600Z SATURDAY 26th TO 1000Z SUNDAY 27TH MAY 2012 Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature. Wx: THIS AFTERNOON AND TONGHT: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy and breezy with a few showers Winds: E - ESE at 15 to 35km/h Seas: Moderate in open water swells 1.5 - 2.5 metres. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise some caution. Meteorologist: Cameron Burke Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

302. nigel20 5:48 PM GMT on May 26, 2012
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services ISSUED AT: 10:03AM Date:Saturday 26th of May 2012 Meteorologist: O. Lovell FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES: Mostly fair,hazy and breezy with the isolated shower favouring hilly areas. SEAS: Normal WAVES: 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius FORECAST MAX TEMP. Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31 Tides ISSUED AT: 04:50PM Date:Friday 25th of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 06.42am 08.12pm LOW 12.05am 01.31pm Scarborough HIGH 06.37am 07.57pm LOW 12.33am 01.35pm Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

303. nigel20 5:55 PM GMT on May 26, 2012
Belize National Meteorological Service Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Sunday midday 12:00 l.t., May 27, 2012. Issued: Saturday May 26, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC). Weather: Today through Sunday midday: Partly cloudy, occasionally mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers. Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C. Sunrise: 06:09 and sunset at 18:56. Winds: Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally to strong; force 6 ( 40 to 50 km/hr, 22 to 27 knots). Synopsis: A tropical wave over the Eastern Caribbean continues to move westward and is expected to pass with most of it's activity to the North and South of the islands. Moisture associated with this system will spread across the local area to produce some cloudiness and possible isolated showers over parts of Bonaire and Curaçao. Otherwise, the present strong wind flow results in a higher wave action over the exposed waters. Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. Waves will be somewhat higher over the northern open waters and passages between islands. Boaters are advised to be cautious.Special features: Subtropical Storm "Beryl" formed in the southwestern Atlantic and is moving toward the southwest. This storm doesn't form any threat to our islands. Outlook until Monday midday: Generally partly cloudy with a chance of a few passing showers. Forecaster: H. M. Lauffer. The next weather forecast will be issued on Saturday at 17:00 l.t. (21:00 UTC). Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

304. nigel20 5:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2012
National Hurricane Center Discussion THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL NEAR 32N76W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOSE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA...LIKELY DUE TO WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FRESH TRADES COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS MIGRATING THROUGH 71W...BUT WILL SHIFT W AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINDS AND SEAS. 2:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

305. nigel20 2:32 AM GMT on May 27, 2012
Have a good weekend all National Hurricane Center Discussion THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SHOWERS TO MOVE W TO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 8:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

306. Tropicsweatherpr 10:42 AM GMT on May 27, 2012
Good morning. More dry weather is expected today,but increasing moisture will occur by midweek. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 534 AM AST SUN MAY 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO REAL CHANGE UNTIL SOMETIME THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 68W. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF DRY AIR ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. GPS MET DATA AT ISABELA AND CHRISTIANSTED CONFIRMED THIS...SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. EXPECTING A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON AND A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG EAST COAST OF THE ISLANDS DURING EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AS AN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .MARINE...EXPECT GENERALLY WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE TODAY DUE TO WINDS OF AROUND 18 KTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 76 88 77 / 20 20 20 20 STT 87 77 88 78 / 20 20 20 20 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

307. Tropicsweatherpr 10:50 AM GMT on May 28, 2012
Good morning. The dry weather will continue until Thursday when moisture increases. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 528 AM AST MON MAY 28 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY. && .DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL TO PREVIOUS THINKING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TRY TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS... TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING MID-WEEK...AS RIDGE SHIFTS AND WEAKENS A BIT...ALLOWING FOR WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER VENTILATION. ADDITIONALLY...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE ADVECTION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA...ENHANCING THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-BUILDS LOCALLY AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA... RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED AND LOCALIZED...ALBEIT POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS DAY4/DAY5...OPTED TO LEAVE HAZE OUT OF THE GRIDS...TO AVOID AND FLIP-FLOP IN FORECASTS AND ALLOW BETTER TIMING OF ONSET AND LENGTH OF HAZY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...VFR THRU 17Z WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A TSTM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WWD AND MAY IMPACT TJMZ. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM AS CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST VCSH. STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUE WITH JBQ BEING THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHRA/TSRA AND THUS CIG RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 86 75 88 75 / 20 20 40 20 STT 86 77 86 77 / 10 20 20 20 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

308. nigel20 3:48 AM GMT on May 29, 2012
Good night all I'm sorry that i was not able to post over the last couple of days...i was a bit busy National Hurricane Center Discussion CARIBBEAN SEA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 82W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER MOST OF CUBA. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 8:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

309. Tropicsweatherpr 10:45 AM GMT on May 29, 2012
Good morning. Dry weather will continue today in PR with only the usual afternoon showers in interior and NW.Increasing moisture will arrive by late Wednesday and last thru Thursday,followed by dry weather with haze for next weekend. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 408 AM AST TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY FRI. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL THEN ESTABLISH FOR THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT IS FCST TO INCREASE WED AND THU AHEAD OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 50W. FOR TODAY...ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM YDAY IS THE STEERING FLOW WITH 0-6KM MEAN FLOW MORE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AND FROM THE SOUTH ON WED. EXPECT A BIT MORE ACTIVITY WED AND ESPECIALLY THU AS MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER. SIDED WITH THE GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GLOBAL FORECAST ENSEMBLE MEAN. EXPECT TO SEE DRYING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI WITH ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. NOTE THAT WHILE THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY THERE IS A TON OF MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOISTURE WITH 500-100 MB RH NEARLY SATURARED. SO SKY GRIDS CARRY A LOT OF CLOUD CVR BUT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW A STRONG CAP WITH H85 TEMPS OVER 20C AND EXTREMELY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT H85 IN EXCESS OF 20C BUT WITH SATURATED ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 500 MB. AGAIN...SKY CVR GRIDS CARRY A LOT OF CLOUD CVR BUT NO WX DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS AND STRONG CAP. EXPECT TO SEE SOME DUST HAZE WITH POSSIBLE SIG REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. NOT AS DRY SUN INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AS AREA REMAINS UNDER UPPER CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF AN AMPLIFLYING TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC/SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONT. MVFR AND LCL MTN OBSCURATIONS PSBL AGAIN IN AFTERNOON OVER PR INTERIOR IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST PR QUARTER. ELSEWHERE A STRAY SHRA MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR FOR TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK TODAY/TONIGHT. WIND BLO FL200 TO GRADUALLY TURN SE TODAY AND EVEN S SOME LVLS ON WED...BUT REMAIN BLO 15 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WED AND THU WITH SCT TSRA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. EXPECT TO SEE SOME DUST HAZE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REDUCED VSBYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE WED AND THU BUT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY IN THAT AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT UNDER A SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE MID 90S. COULD SEE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 76 89 76 / 20 0 20 20 STT 85 79 85 79 / 20 10 10 40 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

310. nigel20 3:13 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Good morning to all from the Caribbean and else where National Hurricane Center Discussion CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N82W TO 16N85W IS HELPING PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21W BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND TOWARDS THE S FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 79W-83W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 9N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE N OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE TRPCL ATLC IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARDS ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N E OF 64W. MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AND COULD MOVE OVER LAND AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 8:05AM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

311. nigel20 3:18 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Dominica Meteorological Service Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles Issued: 6:00AM on Tuesday, May 29, 2012 Moisture and instability associated with a tropical wave are affecting the southern portion of the island chain resulting in cloudiness and showers. Elsewhere, mostly fair skies are expected under the influence of a ridge of high pressure. Sea conditions will remain moderate throughout the remainder of the week with swells peaking near 7.0 feet. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coastline, are advised to continue to exercise caution. Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

312. nigel20 3:21 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
The Bahamas Meteorology Department WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, TUESDAY 29TH MAY 2012 GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER. WEATHER: PTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MILD TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SMALL CRFAT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS IN TSTMS WINDS:SE/S 10/15KNOTS SEAS:2/4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE 88°F 31°C OVERNITE LOW TEMPERATURE 75°F 24°C SUNRISE: 6:20 AM MOONRISE: 1:58 PM LOW TIDE 8:44 AM SUNSET : 7:55 PM MOONSET: 2:13 AM HIGH TIDE 3:00 PM EXTENDED WEATHER FORECAST: WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WEATHER: SUNNY AND WARM WITH FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDS:SE/S 10/15 KNOTS SEAS: 2/4FT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WEATHER: SUNNY AND WARM WITH ISOL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WIND: S'LY 10KNOTS SEAS: 1/3FT FCSTR. N. ARMSTRONG Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

313. nigel20 3:32 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Met Service of Jamaica May 29, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the western Caribbean. Comment Comment… The Trough is expected to weaken on Wednesday as a High Pressure Ridge builds across the region. 24-HOUR FORECAST This morning…Partly cloudy. This afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over sections of central and western parishes. Tonight… Partly cloudy. Maximum temperatures expected today for: Kingston 32 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 33 degrees Celsius 3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow) Wed… Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over central and western parishes. Windy during the afternoon. Thu… Mostly cloudy and windy day with isolated thunderstorms. Fri… Morning showers over sections of northern parishes. Isolated showers during the afternoon over central and western parishes. Regionally… Tropical Depression Beryl remains over Georgia, about 15 kilometres northwest of Valdosta. cdj Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

314. VirginIslandsVisitor 4:32 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Good afternoon, guys! Just in checking in on our weather. Looking good for a night of fishing! Thanks again to both of you, Nigel and TWPR. Always great info when we need it. Lin Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 234

315. nigel20 9:54 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor: Good afternoon, guys! Just in checking in on our weather. Looking good for a night of fishing! Thanks again to both of you, Nigel and TWPR. Always great info when we need it. Lin Thanks again for visiting...it's good to know that myself and Tropicsweatherpr can provide you with well needed info Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

316. nigel20 2:23 AM GMT on May 30, 2012
Good night all National Hurricane Center Discussion CARIBBEAN SEA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER N...RAIN WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 8:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

317. Tropicsweatherpr 11:19 AM GMT on May 30, 2012
Good morning. A dry day for the most part in PR but with the usual afternoon showers. Tommorow will be another story as a Tropical Wave combining with a trough will increase the showers here. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 401 AM AST WED MAY 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MADE SOME CORRECTIONS NOW INDICATING SUBSIDENCE FOR TODAY AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING BARBADOS THIS MORNING. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL SHOWING A PW MINIMA BETWEEN THE USVI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SCT ACROSS NW PR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS AND KEPT SCT POPS ACROSS THE USVI AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AS MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY THERE. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO SURGE TONIGHT AND LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 00Z FRI WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OVER 2.0 INCHES...TROPICAL WAVE IS GOING TO BE ENCOUNTERING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG 65W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION IMPACTING THE ERN THIRD OF PR...USVI AND SURROUNDING WATERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DENSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO OPAQUE MOST OF THE SKY NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY END UP BEING DETRIMENTAL TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW PR IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE ISLANDS WITH STRONG IF NOT POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS NMRS TSRA WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS WITH TOPS TO -80C. STRONG SHEAR AND RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTION NEAR 15 KTS WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE ERN THIRD OF PR MAY STILL HOWEVER EXPERIENCE SOME FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE RAPID RESPONSE TIME OF THE RIVERS IN THAT AREA. RAPID DRYING WILL OVERTAKE THE LOCAL ON FRI BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY TO PACK A PUNCH LIKE IT IS EXPECTED FOR THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND USVI ON THU. THEN SAHARAN AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND LIKELY LAST UNTIL SUN. NOTE THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING H85 TEMPS OVER 20C AND EXTREMELY LARGE H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 20C INDICATING A STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SO THE FCST FOR DRY WX FRI NIGHT AND SAT STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH DUST HAZE. && .AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA ATTM MAINLY OVR ATL WATERS BUT DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM SE...TO PERSIST THRU MORNING. MVFR WITH LCL MTN OBSC XPCTD AGAIN THIS AFT BUT FEWER THAN LAST FEW DAYS. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PRIMARILY N/NW PR. WND BLO FL200 SE 5-15 KT BUT INCR 15-20 KT TONIGHT/THU AHEAD OF APPR TROPICAL WAVE. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. SQUALLY WX IS LIKELY STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. NMRS STRONG TSRA ARE LIKELY WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 89 76 89 76 / 20 20 70 60 STT 80 78 81 78 / 30 40 70 80 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

318. nigel20 2:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Good morning all National Hurricane Center Discussion CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 83W-88W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING COSTA RICA AND PANAMA S OF 12N ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 9N75W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N E OF 63W. MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. 8:05AM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

319. nigel20 2:37 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Meteorological Department Curacao Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Thursday midday 12:00 l.t., May 31, 2012. Issued: Wednesday May 30, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC). Weather: Today: Partly cloudy and generally dry. Tonight through Thursday midday: Partly cloudy with chance of a local shower. Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C. Sunrise: 06:09 and sunset at 18:57. Winds: East to Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally, strong to possibly near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots). Synopsis: No significant changes are expected in the current weather over the local area during the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, an isolated passing shower could develop over Bonaire and Curaçao during the overnight and early morning hours. Otherwise, the current strong wind flow results in a higher than usual wave action over the exposed waters. Furthermore, a tropical wave is approaching the Southeastern Caribbean sea but will not reach the local region until Friday. Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. The highest waves are over the Northern open waters and passages between the islands. Marine users are advised to take this into account. Special features: Tropical Depression "Beryl" was located near the South Carolina coast, over the Southeast continental United States, and doesn't pose any threat to the local islands. Outlook until Friday midday: Generally partly cloudy with a shower during the morning. Forecaster: Abraham / D. E Barkmeyer The next weather forecast will be issued on Wednesday at 18:00 l.t. (22:00 UTC). Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

320. nigel20 4:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Belize National Meteorological Service Date: WEDNESDAY 30TH MAY 2012 Time: 5:30 AM General Situation: MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION. 24hr Forecast: CLOUDY WITH SUNNY PERIODS TODAY AND CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT; A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING THEN OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. Winds: EAST - SOUTHEAST 5 - 15 KNOTS. Sea State: CHOPPY. Outlook: THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING: CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. Temperatures: Highs (today) Lows (tonight) Coast 31° C 87° F Coast 25o C 77o F Inland 33° C 91° F Inland 23o C 73° F Hills 26° C 78° F Hills 20o C 68o F Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

321. nigel20 4:42 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Barbados Weather Service Lesser Antilles Forecast Validity: 1600Z WEDNESDAY 30th TO 1000Z THURSDAY 31st MAY 2012 Synopsis: A weak tropical wave is affecting the island. Wx: AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Over the southern Windwards,mostly cloudy to overcast with showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. ELSE WHERE: Fair to partly cloudy wifh a few scattered showers. Winds: ENE - ESE at 15 to 35km/h Seas: Moderate in open water with swells 1.5 - 2.0m. Meteorologist: Randolph Mascoll Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

322. originalLT 4:45 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Alot of good info on your blog. Thanks for asking how I was late last night on Dr. Masters blog. I'm doing OK. Where are you located, I'm in Stamford CT. My son is in Raleigh N.C., he's getting the western edge of Beryl's Precip. shield. I'll ask him how it was , tonight. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5048

323. nigel20 4:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting originalLT: Alot of good info on your blog. Thanks for asking how I was late last night on Dr. Masters blog. I'm doing OK. Where are you located, I'm in Stamford CT. My son is in Raleigh N.C., he's getting the western edge of Beryl's Precip. shield. I'll ask him how it was , tonight. Thank you very much...I'm from the Caribbean (Jamaica) Hopefully the flooding was limited in N.C. and most of the US! Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

324. Tropicsweatherpr 7:25 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Good afternoon. After a mainly dry day here,tommorow will be another story as a Tropical Wave combining with a trough will increase the showers here. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 256 PM AST WED MAY 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 55 WEST WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE SEVEN DAYS. THIS FLOW WILL DRAW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AROUND 2.15 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGEST SAHARAN AIR REACHING THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS W AND NW PR AFTER 30/18Z...CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...VCTS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TSRA...VCSH WERE USED INSTEAD AS THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SHRA. CLOUDINESS ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL 23Z...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...SEAS 2-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POSSIBLE STARTING MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 78 88 77 87 / 20 70 60 60 STT 78 87 78 82 / 40 70 80 80 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

325. nigel20 3:50 AM GMT on May 31, 2012
Good night to all from the Caribbean and elsewhere National Hurricane Center Discussion THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N89W 15N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE TROUGH AT 18N91W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA N OF 20N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N83W TO NICARAGUA AT 11N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 83W-86W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W. FURTHER E...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 8:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

326. Tropicsweatherpr 11:16 AM GMT on May 31, 2012
Good morning. A mostly rainy day is expected today in PR,but from Friday and thru the weekend,a dry weather pattern with saharan dust will invade the Eastern Caribbean. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 436 AM AST THU MAY 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 59 WEST OR JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS INTERACTING WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS TO JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE TOPICAL ATLANTIC AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FURTHER EAST...THE LEADING EDGE OF SAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST TRAILS THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WAS NOW NEAR 53 WEST BUT EXTENDS FURTHER EAST OUT TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS BLENDED TPW AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE ENHANCED CONVECTION INDUCED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...STILL EXPECT MOISTURE ALONG ITS NORTHERN FRINGES TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION AND DIFFLUENCE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING... WILL PRODUCE A GOOD ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE VERY EXPLOSIVE AND COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS... STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THOSE AREAS. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS LARGE AREA OF DUST IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRAIL THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...THEN REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY FRIDAY. THEREFORE BY SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT VERY HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ACROSS THE USVI TERMINALS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE NNW AROUND 10 KNOTS. STABILITY INDICES ARE QUITE LOW WITH LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -8C AND SHOWALTER AROUND -3C SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE MAIN THREAT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MOST AIRPORTS XCPT JPS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WAS INCLUDED FOR JBQ WHERE CHANCES OF TSRA SEEM PRETTY LIKELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 89 78 / 60 20 20 10 STT 86 77 86 77 / 60 20 20 10 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

327. nigel20 5:49 PM GMT on May 31, 2012
Good afternoon all...tomorrow is the start of the hurricane season, so remember t stock up on non-perishable items and make sure that you have a family evacuation plan. Cayman Islands National Meteorological Service Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers and possible afternoon thunder. Winds over open sea Winds will be southeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Sea State Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet. Temperature High: 86°F \| 30°C Low: 76°F \| 24°C Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

328. nigel20 5:54 PM GMT on May 31, 2012
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service ISSUED AT: 10:13AM Date:Thursday 31st of May 2012 Meteorologist: A. Nancoo FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE REM.OF THE LESSER ANTILLES: Variably cloudy with scattered showers and the isolated thundershower. Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur in heavy showers and thundershowers. SEAS: Slight WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5mIN OPEN WATERS Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius FORECAST MAX TEMP. Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 30 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:32PM Date:Wednesday 30th of May 2012 Port of Spain HIGH *** 12.37pm LOW 06.08am 06.08pm Scarborough HIGH * 12.23pm LOW 06.05am 06.14pm Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments:** 4510

329. nigel20 5:59 PM GMT on May 31, 2012
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services The Eastern Caribbean Forecast valid up to 8am Friday 1st June 2012. Wx: The effects of a tropical wave will be felt over the southern half of the region later today and tonight as it moves through the islands. Skies over the Windward Islands, Barbados and Trinidad will be cloudy occasionally with scattered showers. There is also the chance for the outbreak of isolated thunderstorms. A weak high pressure ridge will keep a dryer atmosphere over the northern half of the region. Conditions in most cases will be sunny. But there is still the chance of a few brief, scattered showers today and tonight. Winds: East and east southeast 12 - 15 Kts today with lighter spells overnight. Seas: Slight to moderate; wells 3 - 5 ft or 1 - 1 .5 M. Barometric Pressure: Near normal. Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services Llewellyn Dyer-Forecaster Forecast issued at 4:51 AM,GMT-04:00 on 31/05/2012 Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

330. nigel20 6:15 PM GMT on May 31, 2012
National Hurricane Center Discussion THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF GUATEMALA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 10N78W TO 18N79W BEYOND 26N79W BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 83W/84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W. 2:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

331. nigel20 3:03 AM GMT on June 01, 2012
Good night all...remember to be always prepared during the hurricane season, as a storm can form and strengthen in a relatively short period of time. National Hurricane Center Discussion THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA... COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. FURTHER E...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 8:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

332. Tropicsweatherpr 10:44 AM GMT on June 01, 2012
Good morning. Hazy and dry weather is expected this weekend in the Eastern Caribbean islands. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 455 AM AST FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && .DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...TJSJ 01/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES AND THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT VALUES OF MORE THAN 2.00 INCHES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON... DECREASING RAPIDLY TO 1.5 INCHES OR LESS TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SAHARAN DUST BY TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE BY LATE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT VERY HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT FEW PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 01/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 01/16Z-01/22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 0 10 STT 88 77 88 77 / 30 0 0 0 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

333. nigel20 4:16 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
Good Morning All National Hurricane Center Discussion THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 82W OVERNIGHT HAS DIMINISHED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LIFTED NE INTO THE SE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ON AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N79W WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 65W. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH SLY FLOW OPENING UP INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SAL BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE NE CARIBBEAN. 8:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

334. nigel20 4:19 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
Met Service of Jamaica June 01, 2012 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge across the northern Caribbean. Comment The High Pressure Ridge should be the dominant feature over the next three days. 24-HOUR FORECAST This Morning… Mainly sunny and windy. This Afternoon… Mainly sunny and windy except for isolated thunderstorms over sections of western parishes. Tonight … Becoming fair. Maximum temperatures expected today for: Kingston 33 degrees Celsius Montego Bay 33 degrees Celsius 3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow) Sat… Partly cloudy over eastern parishes during the morning. Windy with isolated thunderstorms over some hilly areas during the afternoon. Sun… Mainly sunny and windy Mon… Mainly sunny except for isolated showers over hilly areas during the afternoon. Regionally… A Trough is generating cloudy conditions across the eastern Caribbean. ram Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

335. nigel20 4:29 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
Meteorological Department Curacao Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curaçao valid until Saturday midday 12:00 l.t., June 2, 2012. Issued: Friday June 1, 2012. 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC). Weather: Today Generally partly cloudy and mainly dry. Tonight through Saturday morning:Partly cloudy; temporarily mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers. Forecast high: 32°C and forecast low: 26°C. Sunrise: 06:09 and sunset at 18:57. Winds: East to Southeast and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 ( 20 to 39 km/hr, 12 to 21 knots). Gusting occasionally, strong to possibly near gale; force 6 to 7 ( 40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots). Synopsis: A tropical wave was located this morning over the Eastern Caribbean area and is moving West. This system is expected to move across the local area later today. Most of the shower activity related to the wave however, are to the South of our islands. Therefore, no significant precipitation is expected over the local islands during this forecast period. Otherwise, the current strong air flow continues to result in a higher than usual wave action over the exposed waters. Sea conditions: Moderate to locally fairly rough with waves between 1 and 2.5 meters. The highest waves are over the Northern open waters and passages between the islands. Mariners are advised to be aware of this event. Significant Tropical Systems: Today, June 1, is the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Two tropical storms, Alberto and Beryl, developed already this year before this day over the Atlantic Ocean. The remaining names prepared for this season's named storms are: Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Hélène, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William. The Meteorological Department Curaçao recently issued a press release that contains, among others, more detailed information about the seasonal outlook for 2012. Special features: None. Outlook until Sunday midday: Partly cloudy with a local shower. Forecaster: Figueroa The next weather forecast will be issued on Friday at 17:00 l.t. (21:00 UTC). Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

336. nigel20 4:31 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
Dominica Meteorological Service Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles Issued: 12:00 PM on Friday, June 1, 2012 A ridge of high pressure has established itself across the area. This will result in a gradual drying out of the atmosphere together with an improvement in conditions across the area. Saharan dust is also expected to result in a reduction in visibility across the island during the next 24 hours. Sea conditions will remain moderate during the next 24 hours. However, an increase in wind speed is expected to result in a slight increase in swells during today. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly along the eastern coastline, are advised to exercise caution. Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

337. nigel20 4:36 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
The Bahamas Meteorology Department WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, FRIDAY 01ST JUNE 2012. WARNINGS: RESIDENTS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IN LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD SAFE GUARD THEMSELVES FROM POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS EVENTS. GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY, HUMID AND WARM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE BOATERS: SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS: SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS: 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. DAYTIME HIGH TEMP: 88°F 31°C OVERNIGHT LOW: 73°F 23°C SUNRISE: 6:20AM SUNSET: 7:56PM MOONRISE: 5:07PM MOONSET: 4:28AM SAT. LOW TIDE: 11:30AM & 12:24AM SAT. HIGH TIDE: 5:56PM FORECAST FOR SATURDAY: WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS GRADUALLY CLEARING BY EVENING. WINDS: SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. SEAS RUNNING: 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 3 FEET OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. FORECAST FOR SUNDAY: WEATHER: VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEAS RUNNING: LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE OCEAN. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: DESPITE TWO EARLY STORMS THIS YEAR, THE TROPICS ARE QUIET ON THE OFFICIAL START OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE END. I.V.M. Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

338. Tropicsweatherpr 7:19 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
Dry weekend ahead with very hazy conditions. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 247 PM AST FRI JUN 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CONSIDERABLY AS WELL AS BRINGING HAZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT...A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A RIDGE ALOFT. && .DISCUSSION...NAAPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST WILL BE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...HAZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY. TODAY...THE HEAT INDEX WENT UP TO AS MUCH AS 107 DEGREES IN PONCE AND 100 IN SAN JUAN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE REACHING 91 DEGREES IN PONCE AND 93 DEGREES IN SAN JUAN. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...SATURDAY LOOKS THE DRIEST AND SUNDAY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO BUT WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN. AFTER THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY...A TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 01/22Z. SOUTHEAST WIND AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY UNTIL 01/22Z THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 0 10 10 STT 77 88 77 89 / 10 10 0 10 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

339. Tropicsweatherpr 7:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
Statement from the San Juan NWS regarding the start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 931 AM AST FRI JUN 1 2012 ...TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON... THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A NEAR NORMAL ONE. SEASONAL PREDICTIONS FROM NOAA CALL FOR A NEAR NORMAL SEASON AT THIS TIME. NOAA`S FORECAST PREDICTS 9 TO 15 TROPICAL STORMS...4 TO 8 HURRICANES AND 1 TO 3 MAJOR HURRICANES. THE HISTORICAL LONG TERM AVERAGE IS ABOUT 12 TROPICAL STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 3 MAJOR HURRICANES. PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS IN WITNESSING FEW MAJOR HURRICANES. IN RECENT MEMORY...MAJOR HURRICANES GEORGES IN 1998 AND LUIS AND MARILYN IN 1995...AFFECTED PARTS OR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT WIND AND FLOOD DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THE BIG ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO HAS NOT HAD A DIRECT HIT FROM A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE FOR OVER 70 YEARS. THAT IS ABOUT THREE GENERATIONS THAT THESE ISLANDS HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY 4 OR 5). ACCORDING TO NOAA RECORDS...THE HURRICANE SEASONS SPANNING 1995-2011 COMPRISED ONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS OF HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN HISTORY. MOST HURRICANE RESEARCHERS AND SCIENTISTS BELIEVE THAT WE ARE IN AN ERA OF INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY. THIS ALSO MEANS INCREASED PROBABILITY OF LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE CARIBBEAN REGION. SEASONS WITH NORMAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AVERAGE ONE OR TWO LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND ONE IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS NOTED...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FROM 1995-2011 HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES OF 14 TROPICAL STORMS...8 HURRICANES AND 4 MAJOR HURRICANES...THE REAL PROBLEM IS NOT HOW MANY TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES DEVELOP...BUT WHERE THESE STORMS TRACK. DURING THE LAST FOURTEEN YEARS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAVE RECEIVED THE UNWELCOME VISITS OF HURRICANE HUGO IN 1989...LUIS AND MARILYN IN 1995...BERTHA AND HORTENSE IN 1996...GEORGES IN 1998...JOSE AND LENNY IN 1999...DEBBY IN 2000...JEANNE IN 2004 AND OLGA IN 2007 JUST TO NAME A FEW. IN 2011 TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MOVING OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND PUERTO RICO. ALSO IN 2011...TWO OTHER SYSTEMS ALSO AFFECTED THE AREA...TROPICAL STORMS EMILY AND MARIA...THIS STORMS ALSO BROUGHT MAJOR FLOODING TO PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HURRICANE SPAWNED DISASTERS OCCUR EVEN IN YEARS WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL ACTIVITY. HURRICANES DONNA OF 1960...AND DAVID AND FREDERIC OF 1979...ARE REMINDERS OF THE DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT CAN OCCUR DURING A SEASON OF NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL ACTIVITY. NEW SATELLITES AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ALLOW US TO MONITOR AND TRACK DISTURBANCES EMERGING OUT OF AFRICA OR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS...WELL BEFORE THEY REACH OUR LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BE PREPARED WELL IN ADVANCE. LETS USE THE MONTH OF JUNE TO PREPARE OR REVISE OUR FAMILY EMERGENCY PLAN...PREPARE A DISASTER SUPPLIES KIT AND STOCK UP ON NECESSARY NON-PERISHABLE FOOD SUPPLIES. SAFEGUARDING THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS A TEAM EFFORT. PREPARATION AND COORDINATION BETWEEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE COMMONWEALTH OF PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (PREMA)...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TERRITORIAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY (VITEMA)...STATE AND MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS...UNIVERSITIES AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR ARE CRITICAL TO MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF HURRICANES. EVERYONE MUST BE PREPARED Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

340. VirginIslandsVisitor 8:37 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: Statement from the San Juan NWS regarding the start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 931 AM AST FRI JUN 1 2012 ...TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON... THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A NEAR NORMAL ONE. SEASONAL PREDICTIONS FROM NOAA CALL FOR A NEAR NORMAL SEASON AT THIS TIME. NOAA`S FORECAST PREDICTS 9 TO 15 TROPICAL STORMS...4 TO 8 HURRICANES AND 1 TO 3 MAJOR HURRICANES. THE HISTORICAL LONG TERM AVERAGE IS ABOUT 12 TROPICAL STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 3 MAJOR HURRICANES. PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS IN WITNESSING FEW MAJOR HURRICANES. IN RECENT MEMORY...MAJOR HURRICANES GEORGES IN 1998 AND LUIS AND MARILYN IN 1995...AFFECTED PARTS OR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT WIND AND FLOOD DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THE BIG ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO HAS NOT HAD A DIRECT HIT FROM A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE FOR OVER 70 YEARS. THAT IS ABOUT THREE GENERATIONS THAT THESE ISLANDS HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY 4 OR 5). ACCORDING TO NOAA RECORDS...THE HURRICANE SEASONS SPANNING 1995-2011 COMPRISED ONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS OF HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN HISTORY. MOST HURRICANE RESEARCHERS AND SCIENTISTS BELIEVE THAT WE ARE IN AN ERA OF INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY. THIS ALSO MEANS INCREASED PROBABILITY OF LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE CARIBBEAN REGION. SEASONS WITH NORMAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AVERAGE ONE OR TWO LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...AND ONE IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS NOTED...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FROM 1995-2011 HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES OF 14 TROPICAL STORMS...8 HURRICANES AND 4 MAJOR HURRICANES...THE REAL PROBLEM IS NOT HOW MANY TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES DEVELOP...BUT WHERE THESE STORMS TRACK. DURING THE LAST FOURTEEN YEARS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAVE RECEIVED THE UNWELCOME VISITS OF HURRICANE HUGO IN 1989...LUIS AND MARILYN IN 1995...BERTHA AND HORTENSE IN 1996...GEORGES IN 1998...JOSE AND LENNY IN 1999...DEBBY IN 2000...JEANNE IN 2004 AND OLGA IN 2007 JUST TO NAME A FEW. IN 2011 TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MOVING OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX AND PUERTO RICO. ALSO IN 2011...TWO OTHER SYSTEMS ALSO AFFECTED THE AREA...TROPICAL STORMS EMILY AND MARIA...THIS STORMS ALSO BROUGHT MAJOR FLOODING TO PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HURRICANE SPAWNED DISASTERS OCCUR EVEN IN YEARS WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL ACTIVITY. HURRICANES DONNA OF 1960...AND DAVID AND FREDERIC OF 1979...ARE REMINDERS OF THE DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT CAN OCCUR DURING A SEASON OF NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL ACTIVITY. NEW SATELLITES AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ALLOW US TO MONITOR AND TRACK DISTURBANCES EMERGING OUT OF AFRICA OR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS...WELL BEFORE THEY REACH OUR LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BE PREPARED WELL IN ADVANCE. LETS USE THE MONTH OF JUNE TO PREPARE OR REVISE OUR FAMILY EMERGENCY PLAN...PREPARE A DISASTER SUPPLIES KIT AND STOCK UP ON NECESSARY NON-PERISHABLE FOOD SUPPLIES. SAFEGUARDING THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS A TEAM EFFORT. PREPARATION AND COORDINATION BETWEEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE COMMONWEALTH OF PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (PREMA)...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TERRITORIAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY (VITEMA)...STATE AND MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS...UNIVERSITIES AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR ARE CRITICAL TO MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF HURRICANES. EVERYONE MUST BE PREPARED TWPR: Thank you for that very interesting article! Lindy Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 234

341. VirginIslandsVisitor 8:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
The African dust arrived today with a vengence. Haven't seen it this bad in a while! From the south side of St. Thomas, Buck Island (the St. Thomas one) is just a figment of our imaginations! Lindy Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 234

342. nigel20 3:28 AM GMT on June 02, 2012
Good night all National Hurricane Center Discussion CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N71W. W OF 80W ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N91W IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS EVENING. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS MOISTURE AND CONVECTION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND MOST OF NICARAGUA AS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 65W-80W THIS EVENING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 65W. 8:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

343. Tropicsweatherpr 11:11 AM GMT on June 02, 2012
Good morning. The dry and hazy weather will continue for the next couple of days in the Eastern Caribbean islands. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 517 AM AST SAT JUN 2 2012 .SYNOPSIS...VERY DRIER...HAZY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAY...AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND INDUCING ALSO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES OR LESS UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT FEW PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM...ALTHOUGH SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS FLYING AREA. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 89 79 89 78 / 0 0 10 0 STT 88 77 89 77 / 0 0 0 10 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

344. nigel20 3:26 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Good morning everyone! National Hurricane Center Discussion CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N67W. ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-120 NM EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATCAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL BELIZE. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS CENTERED 120 NM SSE OF COZUMEL WHERE LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH WAS OCCURRING NEAR PUERTO CORTES HONDURAS HAS WEAKEND CONSIDERABLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 12N68W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 65W-80W THIS EVENING. 8:05AM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

345. nigel20 3:28 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Belize National Meteorological Service Date: SATURDAY 2nd JUNE 2012 Time: 6:00 AM General Situation: RELATIVELY WARM AND UNSTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE MOIST TOMORROW. 24hr Forecast: CLOUDY WITH SUNNY BREAKS TODAY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY INLAND TODAY, THEN OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE AT TIMES AND ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS. Winds: EAST 5 - 15 KNOTS. Sea State: CHOPPY. Outlook: FOR SUN. AND SUN. NIGHT IS FOR CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST. Temperatures: Highs (today) Lows (tonight) Coast 32° C 90° F Coast 24o C 75o F Inland 35° C 95° F Inland 22o C 72° F Hills 27° C 80° F Hills 20o C 68o F Tides: High: 7:31 AM Low: 2:55 PM High: 9:13 PM Low: 2:08 AM (SUN.) Sunrise : 5:17 AM (SUN.) Moonrise: 4:46 PM Sunset: 6:24 PM Moonset: 4:21 AM (SUN.) Forecaster: M. GENTLE. Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

346. nigel20 3:30 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service ISSUED AT: 10:01AM Date:Saturday 02nd of June 2012 Meteorologist: A. Alexander FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Windward Islands: Hazy with periods of brief isolated showers and a strong breeze with speed in excess of 46 Kmh at times. THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLIES Mostly fair and hazy. SEAS: Normal WAVES: 2.0mIN OPEN WATERS 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS Temperature Units:Celsius FORECAST MAX TEMP. Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 30 Tides ISSUED AT: 05:10PM Date:Friday 01st of June 2012 Port of Spain HIGH 1:35am 2:46pm LOW 8:08am 4:05pm Scarborough HIGH 1:18am 2:23pm LOW 7:57am 7:59pm Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

347. nigel20 3:38 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Barbados Weather Service Lesser Antilles Forecast Validity: 1000Z SATURDAY 2nd TO 1000Z SUNDAY 3rd JUNE 2012 Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature. Wx: TODAY AND TONIGHT: Over the southern Windwards ,it will be partly cloudy and hazy with brief scattered showers. Elsewhere,fair to partly cloudy and hazy with a few brief scattered showers. Winds: ENE - ESE at 15 to 35km/h Seas: Moderate in open water swells 1-5-2.0m.Small craft advisory is in effect for reduce visibility in dense Saharan dust. Meteorologist: Randolph Mascoll Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

348. nigel20 8:50 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Good afternoon everyone! National Hurricane Center Discussion THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD...INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N85W 16N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N49W TO 17N59W...PASSING BEYOND THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N65W...AND ULTIMATELY TOWARD LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 7N74W IN COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. 2:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

349. nigel20 3:12 AM GMT on June 03, 2012
Good night everyone! National Hurricane Center Discussion CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. W OF 80W ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARDS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 80W-86W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHER AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N69W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 60W-80W THIS EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE FAIR WEATHER IS THAT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N E OF 64W. 8:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

350. Tropicsweatherpr 10:52 AM GMT on June 03, 2012
Good morning. Another warm,dry and hazy day is expected today for PR and most of the Eastern Caribbean islands. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 427 AM AST SUN JUN 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS...DRY...HAZY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INDUCING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES OR LESS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEREFORE NOT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT FEW PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS... FOLLOWED BY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SAHARAN AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AS A RESULT...SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZY CONDS ACROSS FLYING AREA. VISIBILITIES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO RANGE BTWN 6 TO 8 SM...BUT SOMETIMES MAY REACH 5 SM. LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 91 78 89 78 / 0 0 10 10 STT 89 77 88 77 / 0 10 10 10 Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8089

351. nigel20 5:52 PM GMT on June 03, 2012
Good afternoon Everyone! National Hurricane Center Discussion CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 79W-85W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HONDURAS NEAR 18N86W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND BARBADOS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 2:05PM Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510

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