More flooding rains likely

By: sullivanweather , 10:21 PM GMT on September 03, 2011

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

Your Northeast Forecast


Synopsis

A rather complicated forecast is shaping up for the Northeast this upcoming week and much will be dependent on the behavior of two tropical systems, Katia in the Atlantic and Lee currently along the Gulf Coast, and their interaction with the mid-latitude flow. Tropical storms aside, our region will have its own issues as a slow-moving cold front taps into some of that deep moisture streaming out from the Gulf ahead of Lee and deposits it onto the region in the form of heavy rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. This alone will have the potential to reinitiate flooding given the over-saturated soil and rivers still running quite high. Beyond Tuesday all bets are off as model consensus completely breaks down in their handling of Katia and Lee, especially. Some models merge Lee with the stalled front bringing yet another round of heavy rain for mainly the southern and eastern portions of the region, though a few models manage to bring Lee's remnants as far west as Michigan. Other models loop Lee back into the Gulf where it then meanders and strengthens into a hurricane. While all this uncertainty exists with Lee during the midweek timeframe, Katia will be swinging between Bermuda and the US East Coast. Most models bring the storm completely around the high missing the coast but allow for some indirect effect between itself and a stacked low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Other models build the high to the north of Katia just enough to bring the western half of the storm into at least a portion of the region along the coast by the end of the week into next weekend.



Daily soil-moisture percentiles. Nearly all of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York and western New England are at record high soil-moisture content levels. Credit: CPC/NOAA


Unfortunately, this uncertainty in the forecast couldn't have come at a worse time given the ongoing clean-up and reconstruction efforts following Irene. Irene's rains on top of already record to near-record levels of soil-moisture content provided for record flooding and only further bolstered the high soil-moisture contents across the region. With one round of heavy rain virtually guaranteed to occur with the stalling cold front centered on Labor Day and others possible from midweek on, additional flooding is all but sure to occur. Having just experienced a devastating flood, many of the same areas could very well flood again. So if you live in a flood-prone area and are recovering you may need to prepare once again.


Short-term forecast

Warm, muggy, summer-like weather will persist this weekend for the Northeast as a deep-layer southwesterly flow emanating from the scorched Southern Plains advects their hot airmass into the region. Temperatures in the 80's and low 90's are common across the southern two-thirds of the region this Saturday afternoon, with dewpoint temperatures well into the 70's. Further north, more clouds have kept temperatures cooler, mainly in 70's across northern New England. Though warm temperatures aloft have capped much of the surface-based instability a few thunderstorms have managed to pop and will continue to do so into the early evening hours across central Pennsylvania and New York.

A very warm night for Northeast with temperatures remaining in the 70's for much of the southern two-thirds of the region, excluding the higher elevations which will drop into the 60's. With lots of low-level moisture expect areas of locally dense fog to develop overnight. Across the northern third of the region it will be a bit cooler, with lows in the 60's. This region will also stand a chance of being grazed by a MCS moving east-northeast from the Great Lakes region along a warm front draped along the US-Canadian border. A quick inch of rain is possible from this system but most places will see amounts under a half an inch. This batch of showers and thunderstorms will weaken towards daybreak as it moves into Maine.

Sunday begins very warm with any fog quickly burning off. Convective debris from the Great Lakes region may provide for varying levels of mid/high clouds across the region but most places will see filtered sunshine at the least through late morning, helping to warm things up back into the 80's for most places from I-90 south. To the north 80's will be found in the St.Lawrence and Champlain Valleys with 70's elsewhere. The very warm and humid airmass will give rise to afternoon shower and thunderstorms as a pre-frontal trough moves into western Pennsylvania and New York ahead of a cold front across the Great Lakes. Some of these storms have the potential to become severe but the bigger concern will be the expected slow-movement of these thunderstorms along a line. The individual cells will move northeastward rather quickly but training of cells and slow forwards progression of lines of storms may present a problem with flash flooding, especially across northern New York during the day on Sunday. This threat will slowly shift southeastward Sunday night into Monday as the cold front pushes into the region, further aiding in lift. Once again, Vermont and the northern Catskills/Mohawk Valley/southern Adirondacks look to receive the heaviest rainfall from this first event. The rainfall will be convective in nature throughout the event so the biggest threat will be from flash flooding, though larger rivers will once again see significant rises as well. Rainfall of 2-4 inches is possible with much higher amounts possible in areas of training cells. Along the coast any activity is expected to be widely scattered as the heaviest stuff will hold off until Monday night. Highs here on Labor Day will climb into the 80's.


Mid-term forecast


Monday night through Tuesday night the front slowly sags to the coast and stalls. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will continue to stream along it with the tropical moisture feed well-established between itself and Lee. Rainfall will average an additional 1-3 inches with higher amounts. These amounts could easily lead to flooding. Further north rain will begin to taper to lighter showers and eventually end by Tuesday. Additional rainfall of a half inch to an inch is possible. Temperatures behind the front will run 15-20 degrees cooler than those out ahead of it.

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Tropical Update


Coming soon...



IR Satellite image of Tropical Storm Katia. Credit: SSD/NOAA




IR Satellite image of Tropical Storm Lee. Credit: SSD/NOAA






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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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Scary Ally update at Crowe's blog
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
*** ♥ ALLY made it to NYC (for her 3f8 treatments) despite the storm! ♥ ***

Full update over at Crowe's blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/crowe1/comment.h tml?entrynum=15#commenttop

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
This one I finished with 20.5" of snow and an inch on the 27th so 21.5" of snow for OCTOBER !!!!! Crazy. Luckily my trees were bare my magnolia tree wasn't so lucky nor were the oak forest behind us. Parents property is decimated
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Snowed for about the last three hours of the storm but no accumulation. Total 1. 85 in rain
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3345
I'm at 9" of snow here. Only heard one large branch fall and the lights just flickered once.
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
Shovler, Tampa and all...

WOW! That's a nice lot of snow!!

Enjoy some for us! We have NONE so far.

Looking forward to photos! :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
Take care out there tonight, Sully. Thinking of you.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
Even down here in Stamford CT, it started as a rain/snow mix for about 20 mins. then all snow, as the temp. went from 40F to 34F in about a half an hour. Then it stayed between 32-33F all day and even now. We received about 4-5".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
It never rained or sleeted like they said it was all snow from the get go!
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Quoting TheShovler3:
The report for kingston said 4.5 as of 6pm but I'd say probably close to a foot

Even in Winter this would be a blockbuster storm, but Oct, wow!
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The report for kingston said 4.5 as of 6pm but I'd say probably close to a foot
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Savoy in MA had 26" as of 10 pm
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27 inches reported in Peru Massachusetts.
How much in Kingston NY, anyone?
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Yeah it's crazy, the site won't let me upload photos from my phone so it'll have to wait
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20", that's amazing!! Shoveler. Heard Sully's area had about a foot, hope he is OK.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
Have no power since 6 and almost 20" of snow trees and branches snapping left and right
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Quoting partylight:
I all most went off the road last night in a very exciting first 100 yards of driving in the snow again. I guess it's time for my snow tires. The mountain ended up with about 4" in the base area last night. (2000') No accumulation at my house (650')but I did have my first frost. In other news, since 8/1 I am now just past 30" of rain. To celebrate, I get another snow storm on Saturday!!!
PLUS:
The snow should start soon here in Southern VT. As always, the oaks and beeches still have their leaves and with 6 to 12, this should be an exciting night.
Also, on the water vapor loop, this storm has really blown up over the past few hours. It's better then tv.


Wow, partylight! I have an appt to get my snows on this Friday, so just need to stick close to home until then. But up here we're expecting less than 2" total. I sure would like to swap forecasts with you!

How's it going? Are you getting a foot of snow or what? How are folks doing down there? Are there still a lot of people without real housing? I keep thinking of you all and wondering what this winter will be like for those displaced. ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
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. . .♥ . ♥ . ♥ . ♥ .♥ . ♥. ♥ . ♥. ♥ . ♥. ♥. ♥. .♥.
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~~~~~~~~~~♥ H A P P Y ♥~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~♥ B I R T H D A Y ♥~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~♥ S H O V L E R ! ♥~~~~~~~
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Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
So, who's got lots of snow?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
We are expecting maybe a dusting in the morning, then it's going to warm up to 42 degrees. How's that fair?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
Quoting TheShovler3:
Had about an inch Thursday, on my birthday which was something I always wanted to happen! Older bro in southern Columbia had 4" looks like 7-10" and wide spread power outages


Do you still have power now?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
Quoting TheShovler3:
Had about an inch Thursday, on my birthday which was something I always wanted to happen! Older bro in southern Columbia had 4" looks like 7-10" and wide spread power outages



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Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
The snow should start soon here in Southern VT. As always, the oaks and beeches still have their leaves and with 6 to 12, this should be an exciting night.
Also, on the water vapor loop, this storm has really blown up over the past few hours. It's better then tv.
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
Approaching 3" and snow started falling around 1230
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Had about an inch Thursday, on my birthday which was something I always wanted to happen! Older bro in southern Columbia had 4" looks like 7-10" and wide spread power outages
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I all most went off the road last night in a very exciting first 100 yards of driving in the snow again. I guess it's time for my snow tires. The mountain ended up with about 4" in the base area last night. (2000') No accumulation at my house (650')but I did have my first frost. In other news, since 8/1 I am now just past 30" of rain. To celebrate, I get another snow storm on Saturday!!!
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
So, who's got snow? Any photos?
Did you get some of the white stuff, Sully?

We're still waiting, here. The snow seems to have come as near as St. Johnsbury to my east and Brandon to my south.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
evening;

lots of us out there thinking about knees, blockage of blood flow etc., a bit like the weather eh.

i get a kick out of your vacations when the blog is usually 50 % correct. Henry M and Joe B get to 85 %, and on your good guesses think you are close or better.

If you are looking for an outlet w/o the weather found two spots that might interest you.

no 1 http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

Interesting and if something blows in Iceland it will be related to the weather.

no 2 http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/10/a-busy-y ear-for-etna-continues-with-its-17th-eruption/#dis qus_thread

Not as active, but interesting.

As we were wont to say before PC: "See you on the back step! "

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3345
Vermont is expecting our FIRST SNOW on Thursday!!
http://blogs.burlingtonfreepress.com/weather/2011 /10/24/a-snowy-vermont-thursday/


I'd sure love to hear your take on this, Sully.
{{{ Sending you good vibes.}}}


Plus! Rina became a hurricane in just 21 hours and promises to get to Cat 3 or 4 by Wednesday! Wow!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
We learn wisdom from failure much more than success.

We often discover what we will do,

by finding out what we will not do.

~ Samuel Smiles
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
Wow, libertygirl! Amazing photos!

Doc Masters has a post up about the prospects this winter for precip and temp. Looks like your area will be warmer and drier than usual. The Great Lakes will be cooler with more precip than usual. Here in the NE it could go either way, so I guess we'll have a relatively "normal" winter. You may need to come north to get some foliage and snow. We'll keep a pile of each for you. :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
Link
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Hi Sully and everyone up there. Hope all is well and recovery from Irene is going good. I wanted to share some pics with you, from Key West, after getting hit with the "95L". We have had 17"+ inches of rain in four days. Many of the roads down here are flooded out, but nothing devastating, thankfully, nothing like what you all saw with Irene. Anyway, take care, miss you guys...miss the Fall, craving snow. :)
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Hoping your area is spared, partylight!

I'd be happy to take your rain for the week...not that we need it by any means, but just to spare you.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
I'll tell you all that the ground around here is full. I have never seen the water table so high up there on the mountain. I Played a round of golf yesterday and the sand traps where lakes and the rest felt like a swamp. It'll be interesting to see how the storm this week pans out. The NWS in Albany says a dry slot between two areas of heavy rain to the east and west should limit the rain in my area but if that changes, from what I'm seeing, this area is ripe for problems.
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
101. listenerVT
3:53 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
Quoting partylight:
Well, one of the temp bridges opened here in Jamaica! One more to go on 100 south but my eyes are watching the storm around Florida. All week the 5 day QPF has been inching it's way up the coast. Things could get exciting again.... I can't stand the rivers being normally low.


It's fabulous to hear of the opening of your first temp bridge! Progress! May you be safe, partylight. We took a foliage drive today and saw some of the road and river damage and repairs, and that was just in the middle of the state. Such a long way to go. But every bit accomplished before Winter counts double!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
100. partylight
1:00 PM GMT on October 09, 2011
Well, one of the temp bridges opened here in Jamaica! One more to go on 100 south but my eyes are watching the storm around Florida. All week the 5 day QPF has been inching it's way up the coast. Things could get exciting again.... I can't stand the rivers being normally low.
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
99. listenerVT
1:39 AM GMT on October 09, 2011
I'll be off on retreat for about the next week.

originalLT ~ I'm hoping to have a report for you by the end of next week! :-)
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98. listenerVT
12:01 AM GMT on October 09, 2011
Science majors, take note!

University of Vermont wins $20 million grant to study Lake Champlain
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201110 07/NEWS02/111007008/University-Vermont-wins-20-mil lion-grant-study-Lake-Champlain?odyssey=tab|topnew s|text|FRONTPAGE
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
97. NEwxguy
8:05 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Hi,all,I see everybody's in high anticpation of this weekend.I love October cause of the colors,but it always provides us with one last gasp of warmth.
Later this week looks like a large wet system headed up the coast,not what people in the northeast need to hear.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
96. listenerVT
8:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2011
Yeah, goofyrider, same here...

My afternoon meeting got postponed. It's 62 degrees, perfectly clear and sunny, with 33% humidity. Plus I don't have the car, so I'm headed out to put the gardens to bed. With clear sunshine and 70's predicted straight into Tuesday, I think I'm going to love this weekend!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
95. goofyrider
12:27 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
Looks like this weekend will be last one without a wetsuit. Temps in the 70s, sun Water in high 60's light winds seas flat
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3345
94. listenerVT
3:48 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Speaking of change...
Nippy! It's about 36 degrees here at the moment.
I brought the mums up onto the porch.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
93. listenerVT
6:15 AM GMT on October 02, 2011
We sometimes forget that there is light after dark,
even though the one constant in life is change.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
92. listenerVT
6:12 AM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting partylight:
Hmm, all this rain. I'm up to 4" this week. Every time it rains it seems like I end up with 6" by the time it ends. Some exciting driving news, the state is saying by Oct 15th, two temp bridges are going to open and replace the ones destroyed by Irene in my town.


Great news about the bridges, partylight!!!

I think of you every time it rains.
How are people doing day to day?
I hear that in Rochester it's going to be years before things feel normal again.
So abnormal is the new normal.
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91. goofyrider
12:33 AM GMT on October 02, 2011
Me too but the Mets are playing fan for the playoffs.
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90. originalLT
6:52 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Hi Goofy, Sully is a Met's guy!
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89. goofyrider
6:40 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Afternoon Sull
Keep your fingers crossed for the Yanks.
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88. partylight
4:20 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Hmm, all this rain. I'm up to 4" this week. Every time it rains it seems like I end up with 6" by the time it ends. Some exciting driving news, the state is saying by Oct 15th, two temp bridges are going to open and replace the ones destroyed by Irene in my town.
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
87. listenerVT
1:57 AM GMT on October 01, 2011
My heart goes out to the people of the Philippines!

On Monday they were devastated by Cat 3 Typhoon, which caused at least 43 deaths...including in Manila.
(I have a friend in Manila.)

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/wp201120.as p


Now they have Cat 4 Typhoon Nalgae about to make landfall in the same part of the country!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp2 01122.html


And look at Hurricane Ophelia...now a Cat 3! It's a good thing that one looks like it will miss Newfoundland after all.
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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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