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Last Updated: 8:56 PM GMT on August 22, 2012
— Last Comment: 12:45 AM GMT on November 21, 2009
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 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO/WESTERN NEB/SOUTHERN SD/FAR NORTHWEST KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 222048Z - 222245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED DOWNBURST/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO/FAR NORTHWEST KS AS WELL AS WESTERN NEB INTO SOUTHERN SD. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AS MARGINAL BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL EXTENT/DURATION OF THE SEVERE RISK. DISCUSSION...MUCH OF THE REGION IS UNDER THE SOUTH-PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STEADY LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT/SHARPENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN TANDEM WITH A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD/NORTHWEST NEB AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED SINCE 1930-2000Z IN VICINITY OF THIS LEE TROUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN SD THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. BUOYANCY AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS ARE BOTH RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER FACTORS SUCH AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME SEMI-SUSTAINED HIGH-BASED STRUCTURES/BRIEF SUPERCELLS. GIVEN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /35-50 F SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS/ AND AN AMPLE DCAPE ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COOLING POST-SUNSET BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ALTHOUGH TSTMS MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEB AND SOUTHERN SD WITH AID OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/22/2012 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...B OU...CYS... LAT...LON 44110134 44229957 43719885 42759885 42000101 39510173 38240334 38920433 41970350 44110134
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CA/SOUTHERN NV TO NORTHWEST AZ/FAR SOUTHWEST UT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 221743Z - 221945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY/PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSI...
Tornado reports- 1. tornado reported by county sheriff in Utah along Beaver/Lincoln county line. 2. Waterspouts briefly moved onshore near Beach City, Texas.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0950 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW TX AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... VALID 210250Z - 210415Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND MCS MOVING SEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. PRIND SVR THREAT HAS PEAKE...
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