Wxchaser97's Tropical Weather Blog

Last Updated: 9:04 PM GMT on May 01, 2013 — Last Comment: 12:22 PM GMT on May 06, 2013

	Special Update: Ernesto becomes a hurricane

Posted by: wxchaser97, 7:15 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

TS Ernesto has became the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season. Aircraft recon has found hurricane force surface winds which warrant an upgrade. Ernesto is a cat1 hurricane with 80mph winds, 983mb pressure, and is moving WNW @ 14mph. Hurricane warnings are up for most of the Yucatan Peninsula and anyone over there should expect TS- Hurricane conditions in the next few hours if not already. His appearance has improved greatly on satellite over the past 12 hours. The coc has became even more well defined and convection has increased on all sides. The environment is conducive for more strengthening right up till landfall so he should continue to intensify. The forecast for Ernesto is still a little tricky with him trending more N of where the NHC forecasts him to go. I expect a 90-95mph hurricane to make landfall between Costa Maya and Punta Allen. After that he should weaken back down to a strong TS but go back into the BOC. The strong Texas death ridge will prevent him from going too far north. Once he is there he should re strengthen back to a hurricane(85mph) and make a landfall between Tecolutla and Tampico. Once inland he should rapidly weaken due to loss of warm water and the mountains. Anyone in hurricane Ernesto's path needs to follow the warnings and take all safety precautions. I will have a full update on the tropics this Evening.

My forecast for Hurricane Ernesto, NOT OFFICIAL

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1. Msdrown 7:30 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Question: On the docs blog a few people were concerned about the two pressure systems to the North that were opening up a slot and mentioned this could pull E north but not necessarly to the Gulf Coast. Is this possible and does it depend on the forward speed, mb, or Cat/strength??? Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

2. wxchaser97 7:34 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting Msdrown: Question: On the docs blog a few people were concerned about the two pressure systems to the North that were opening up a slot and mentioned this could pull E north but not necessarly to the Gulf Coast. Is this possible and does it depend on the forward speed, mb, or Cat/strength??? Ernesto has pretty much ran out of time to go too far north, yes there is an opening but it is too late. He won't make a landfall on US soil. If he was stronger he may have gone north but this would have had to happen earlier. Any the ridge in Texas should force him back west even if he managed to go north. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6802

3. Msdrown 7:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Thanks, doing preps anyway because I procrastinated this season. Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

4. wxchaser97 7:44 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting Msdrown: Thanks, doing preps anyway because I procrastinated this season. Your welcome. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6802

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