U.S. Severe Weather Forecast for Tomorrow
Upcoming severe weather outlook.
acus02 kwns 090525
Storm Prediction Center ac 090524
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2014
Valid 101200z - 111200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
Short-range models are in better agreement tonight regarding the
evolution of upper low as it digs southeastward across northern Mexico into deep
south Texas by 11/12z. Surface flow has turned northerly across all but the southern
tip of Texas late this evening and offshore flow will be noted along
the entire Texas coast by sunrise Sunday morning. Primary surface
baroclinic zone is expected to shift offshore and remain there
through the day2 period.
Weak low-level warm advection is expected to provide
ascent/moistening across the general outlook area with broad upper
diffluence expected to aid upward vertical velocity across this region. Forecast
soundings suggest parcels lifted around 900-850mb should yield
MUCAPE on the order of 300 j/kg with modest middle-level lapse rates
sufficient for deep convection. For this reason it appears scattered
elevated thunderstorms should be noted off and on through the period
until upper low shifts offshore during the day3 period.
..nrn inter-mountain region...
Steep lapse rates...on the order of 7 c/km...should develop across
much of the northern inter-mountain region Monday. Despite meager
moisture across this region...large-scale ascent in association with
digging short-wave trough should encourage weak convection and
perhaps a few thunderstorms...especially at peak of diurnal heating.