U.S. Severe Weather Forecast for Tomorrow
Upcoming severe weather outlook.
acus02 kwns 011731
Storm Prediction Center ac 011730
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Friday Aug 01 2014
Valid 021200z - 031200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
scattered thunderstorms should form along a cold front Saturday as
it sags southeast across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Gusty winds and
perhaps some hail may accompany this activity. Elsewhere...isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the interior
west...especially across the lower Colorado River valley.
Thunderstorms will also be common across the Gulf Coast to the
The large-scale pattern is expected to fluctuate little over the
Continental U.S. Through Saturday. An upper ridge will remain centered over the
central/southern rockies and Four Corners area...while
split/cyclonic upper-flow continues to prevail over the eastern
third of the conus/Canada.
..upper Midwest/north-Central Plains...
While the strongest forcing for ascent will remain north of the
international border...a southeastward-moving cold front across
ND/northern Minnesota and/or a weak surface low/trough across South Dakota may
contribute to isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development. A
couple of severe thunderstorms capable of hail/wind may be possible
Saturday afternoon/evening in the presence of modest buoyancy and
wind profiles characterized by ample veering/weak speeds.
..Delmarva/mid-Atlantic states/coastal NC...
Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will remain possible across
the region Saturday within a moist environment. A weak/transient
supercell or two may be possible through the morning/perhaps
afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface low/remnant frontal
zone. However...given weak buoyancy and expectations for weaker
low-level shear as compared to Friday...severe/tornado probabilities
currently seem negligible for Saturday.
A weak middle-level impulse appears likely to spread generally
east-northeastward across the northern Great Divide/Montana on Saturday.
Associated forcing for ascent and 30-35 knots deep layer shear may
allow for some strong/locally severe thunderstorms within a modestly
unstable environment Saturday afternoon/early evening.
As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen...moderately strong
southwesterly middle/high-level winds on the periphery of The Rockies
ridge could support the development of semi-sustained
isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms. Some stronger storms
capable of gusty downdraft winds/some hail may develop Saturday
afternoon within a corridor from Central/Northeast Oregon into northern
..lower Colorado River valley...
Although guidance solutions vary...a convectively associated
middle-level impulse over Baja California vicinity/northwest Mexico could drift
north-northwestward across the region on Saturday. While buoyancy is
expected to generally be weak in the presence of moist middle-level
thermodynamic profiles...a few stronger storms capable of downbursts
cannot be entirely discounted Saturday afternoon/evening.