U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1222 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015 


Valid 011200z - 021200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across northestern Nebraska...Southeastern 
South Dakota...IA...srn Minnesota... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from South Dakota/Nebraska into WI and Illinois... 


..There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across northern New England... 


... 
Severe storms capable of hail and wind are expected mainly from 
Nebraska into Iowa during the late afternoon and evening...with more 
isolated activity into South Dakota...Minnesota and Wisconsin. A few 
severe storms with hail may also occur over a portion of New 
England. 


... 
An upper trough will move across the northestern states during the day with 
a weak cold front supporting a few strong storms across northern New 
England. To the west...a secondary shortwave trough will sink southward 
across the northern plains and upper MS valley later in the day...with 
surface low developing across the eastern Dakotas southeastward into WI. Pockets of 
60s f dewpoints and heating will lead to cluster of storms across 
the region focused near the cold front with hail and wind possible. 


..ern Nebraska...IA...sern South Dakota...southern Minnesota... 
a surface high to the S of the area as well as boundary layer mixing 
should lead to only lower to middle 60s f dewpoints across the warm 
sector by afternoon...but cool temperatures aloft will aid 
instability levels. Severe hail and wind is expected to initiate 
across southern South Dakota into Nebraska during the late afternoon where heating will 
be strongest and closer to the surface trough/front. Additional storms 
are expected farther north along the front into western Minnesota as well. The northwesterly 
flow pattern as relatively large T/dew point spreads should favor some 
upscale growth as storms develop southeastward across Minnesota and Iowa...with severe 
wind and hail possible. With time...the low-level jet will veer to 
westerly...and will focus lift eastward into WI possibly supporting a few 
severe storms. There is some concern about capping across Minnesota/WI as 
storms move away from the low-level lapse rate plume...and some 
models do not indicate very strong quantitative precipitation forecast signals into these 
areas...thus will maintain a marginal threat at this time. 


..nrn New England... 
A shortwave trough will swing through the area during the day with 
scattered thunderstorms developing near a cold front/wind shift by 
early afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft along with heating will 
support development with long/straight hodographs supporting 
cellular activity capable of large hail. Wind threat is expected to 
be largely mitigated by cellular storm Mode. 


.Jewell.. 07/31/2015