U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 021730 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1230 PM CDT Thursday Jul 02 2015 


Valid 031200z - 041200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the arklatex/lower MS 
River Valley... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the central/southern High 
Plains to the Carolinas/southern Virginia... 


... 
A few storms may be severe Friday afternoon and evening...especially 
from the Central High plains and Southern Plains to the Carolinas. 


... 
The large-scale pattern will fluctuate little into Friday...with 
split/cyclonic westerlies over the eastern half of the Continental U.S. And 
eastern Canada with an upper ridge remaining prevalent over the 
Great Basin and central/southern rockies. 


..Southern Plains/arklatex to Carolinas/southern Virginia... 
Upper heights will be modestly suppressed with some middle-level 
cooling /a couple of degrees c/ possible particularly over the lower 
MS valley/mid-south...with semi-strong westerlies /by early July 
standards/ overspreading an effective frontal zone and related 
corridor of moisture/instability. Multiple bouts of scattered 
convection are likely to be ongoing Friday morning south of a 
roughly west-east slow-moving front...but storms should intensify 
within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer on the 
southern fringes of this early day precipitation/cloud cover. With 
the strongest storms expected Friday afternoon through 
mid-evening...isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail will the 
primary hazards. 


..co/southeast Wyoming Front Range and Central High plains... 
Weak low-level upslope and a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded 
within moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 
the development of stronger storms within a relatively moist air 
mass Friday afternoon/early evening. Moderate instability and 40+ knots 
of effective shear will contribute to the potential for organized 
storms including a few supercells. Areas such as southeast 
Wyoming/eastern Colorado will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a 
possible upgrade to a categorical slight risk. 


.Guyer.. 07/02/2015