U.S. Severe Weather Forecast for Tomorrow
Upcoming severe weather outlook.
acus02 kwns 170555
Storm Prediction Center ac 170553
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 am CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014
Valid 181200z - 191200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
localized severe storms are possible over the Florida
Peninsula...mainly Friday evening to Saturday morning.
Shortwave troughs will be featured in both the northern/southern streams in
the west and east...while a ridge dominates the central states.
Amplification of a compact impulse is anticipated across parts of
the southeast and northestern Gulf with weak surface cyclogenesis occurring
over northern or central Florida by early Sat.
Spatiotemporal spread is large for this time frame among guidance
with the evolution of the aforementioned shortwave trough and
attendant weak cyclogenesis /consistent with wpc pmdhmd/. This
renders below-average confidence for how the convective environment
should evolve over the peninsula during the period. Confidence is
highest in widespread convection ongoing over the northestern Gulf on Friday
morning. With southwesterly middle/upper-level winds...extensive downstream
cloud debris will likely weaken high-level lapse rates. In
addition...outside of the faster GFS...the bulk of strengthening
kinematic fields appears to be during the latter half of the period.
This suggests diurnal convection should largely remain sub-severe.
The primary window for organized storms appears to be centered on
Friday night as weak cyclogenesis ensues and deep-layer shear
strengthens /the amplitude of which is quite variable in guidance/.
Amidst middle to upper 60s surface dew points...a few organized
storms are possible...supporting at least a marginal severe risk.