- Day Three
acus02 kwns 021731
Storm Prediction Center ac 021730
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thursday Jul 02 2015
Valid 031200z - 041200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the arklatex/lower MS
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the central/southern High
Plains to the Carolinas/southern Virginia...
A few storms may be severe Friday afternoon and evening...especially
from the Central High plains and Southern Plains to the Carolinas.
The large-scale pattern will fluctuate little into Friday...with
split/cyclonic westerlies over the eastern half of the Continental U.S. And
eastern Canada with an upper ridge remaining prevalent over the
Great Basin and central/southern rockies.
..Southern Plains/arklatex to Carolinas/southern Virginia...
Upper heights will be modestly suppressed with some middle-level
cooling /a couple of degrees c/ possible particularly over the lower
MS valley/mid-south...with semi-strong westerlies /by early July
standards/ overspreading an effective frontal zone and related
corridor of moisture/instability. Multiple bouts of scattered
convection are likely to be ongoing Friday morning south of a
roughly west-east slow-moving front...but storms should intensify
within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer on the
southern fringes of this early day precipitation/cloud cover. With
the strongest storms expected Friday afternoon through
mid-evening...isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail will the
..co/southeast Wyoming Front Range and Central High plains...
Weak low-level upslope and a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
within moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to
the development of stronger storms within a relatively moist air
mass Friday afternoon/early evening. Moderate instability and 40+ knots
of effective shear will contribute to the potential for organized
storms including a few supercells. Areas such as southeast
Wyoming/eastern Colorado will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a
possible upgrade to a categorical slight risk.