U.S. Severe Weather Forecast for Tomorrow
Upcoming severe weather outlook.
acus02 kwns 010425
Storm Prediction Center ac 010424
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014
Valid 021200z - 031200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Midwest to central Texas...
band of thunderstorms should form along cold front as it progresses
across the plains into the Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts
are the primary severe threat with the strongest storms.
..Midwest to central Texas...
Low latitude short-wave trough will eject across the southern
rockies/High Plains early in the period before ejecting rapidly northeastward
into the lower Ohio Valley after midnight. Primary feature
responsible for this rapid ejection is an intensifying speed maximum
that will dig into the Central Plains by 03/12z. This secondary
feature should aid deepening cyclone/sharpening frontal boundary
over the upper Great Lakes late.
Although frontal intensification is not expected until late in the
period...convection is expected to develop along progressive
boundary beginning fairly early in the period. Latest model
guidance suggest ample boundary layer moisture will advance as far
north as northern Illinois by late afternoon with precipitable water values at or above 1.5 inches.
What little cinh is observed at 12z ahead of the front will diminish
by 17-18z such that thunderstorms should readily develop along wind
shift across eastern KS/OK. This activity should mature into a
extensive squall line stretching from the middle MS valley...southwestward into
northestern Texas by late afternoon. Greatest buoyancy is expected to reside
from the Ozark Plateau southwestward into Texas and hail is most likely along
this portion of the squall line. Mean southwesterly wind will be on the
order of 30-35kt...more than adequate for progressive squall line
that should advance toward the MS river during the evening hours.
While deep layer shear is more than adequate for deep
rotation...storm Mode favors linear development and damaging winds
are the primary severe threat.