Tropical Cyclone Oma

Last Updated: 2/20/2019, 12:00:00 AM (UTC)

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000 
WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 161.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 161.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.0S 160.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   ADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 22.7S 159.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 23.6S 159.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 24.8S 158.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 26.3S 158.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 26.5S 159.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 26.3S 160.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEGRADING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, 
RAGGED AND POORLY STRUCTURED EYE. A 192243Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW DVORAK 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON A WEAKENING 
TREND IN THE STORM STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 
TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES 
CELSIUS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO 
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR 
REORIENTS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT TAU 72, 
THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES 
AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ECMWF AND GFS 
INDICATE A WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST RECURVATURE AFTER TAU 72 WHILE 
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 
72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN 
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Oma and the 2019 Southern Hemisphere hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Feb 12
00:00 GMT
-14.0°
164.5°
40 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 12
06:00 GMT
-13.7°
164.9°
40 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 12
12:00 GMT
-13.7°
165.5°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 12
18:00 GMT
-14.0°
166.0°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 13
00:00 GMT
-14.4°
166.1°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 13
06:00 GMT
-14.6°
165.1°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 13
12:00 GMT
-14.0°
165.0°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 13
18:00 GMT
-14.7°
165.4°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 14
00:00 GMT
-14.7°
165.5°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 14
06:00 GMT
-14.9°
165.5°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 14
12:00 GMT
-15.5°
165.2°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 14
18:00 GMT
-15.4°
165.4°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 15
00:00 GMT
-15.1°
165.2°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 15
06:00 GMT
-15.0°
165.1°
75 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 15
12:00 GMT
-15.3°
164.6°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 15
18:00 GMT
-15.5°
164.3°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 16
00:00 GMT
-15.5°
163.9°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 16
06:00 GMT
-15.5°
164.1°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 16
12:00 GMT
-15.3°
164.2°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 16
18:00 GMT
-15.3°
164.4°
75 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 17
00:00 GMT
-15.5°
164.2°
75 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 17
06:00 GMT
-16.1°
164.3°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 17
12:00 GMT
-16.3°
164.3°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 17
18:00 GMT
-16.6°
164.1°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 18
00:00 GMT
-17.3°
164.0°
60 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 18
06:00 GMT
-18.2°
163.3°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 18
12:00 GMT
-18.5°
163.1°
60 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 18
18:00 GMT
-19.0°
162.7°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 19
00:00 GMT
-19.7°
162.3°
85 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 19
06:00 GMT
-20.0°
162.1°
85 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 19
12:00 GMT
-20.6°
162.0°
85 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 19
18:00 GMT
-21.1°
161.5°
85 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 20
00:00 GMT
-21.4°
161.2°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
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